The High Cost of EV Adoption Today
George Ayres Automotive | Leader | Sales | Marketing | Mobility | Connected | Electric | Autonomous | Shared | Revenue | Growth 18 articles The transformation of the auto industry from internal combustion engines to battery power is accelerating, no doubt about it. And the infrastructure, charging networks, and government support for this change are increasing. Consumer themselves are listening, learning, and becoming more interested in moving towards EV’s too. The article below describes a recent Consumer Reports survey that said 14% of people would definitely purchase an EV, but twice this number (28%) definitely “would not” consider an EV. What about the 58% in the middle? What will it take to move them? I think the main issue at the moment is not range, charging infrastructure, or fear of new tech. It’s simply cost. EV’s are expensive right now. Too expensive! And it seems things will be this way for at least 3 years. Let’s look at why. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8431522422095463804&li_theme=dark It’s clear that soon we will have many varieties of electric vehicles available, and some will be more affordable. All OEM’s are moving quickly. Just take a look at the center-spread of this week’s Automotive News (shown below) and you can see that every Automaker is moving faster to transform their product line-up to more EV’s. And States like California are moving to full EV only. But much of this terrific new product development is not helping buyers yet, as the models currently available for sale are all just too expensive. For example, the EV market leader, Tesla, has not expanded its model range for awhile, and even the Model 3 starts at $45k. Ford has the F-150 Lightning and Mach E, but they both cost $40k or more, and very hard to get. And yes, the Cadillac Lyriq sold out in a few hours, but it is in very limited production and costs over $60,000 which is much more expensive than the majority of the buyers in the new car market can afford. And because GM is no longer eligible, there is not even an EV tax credit for this vehicle. But GM did recently reduce the price of the Chevy Bolt. So GM is clearly thinking about EV affordability. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8673126474556867075&li_theme=dark But all of the new EV vehicles are not here yet. And people need to buy something, or upgrade their current vehicle, and can’t wait. Supply is constrained due to the ongoing semi-conductor chip shortage. And component material prices for batteries are increasing, especially for lithium and cobalt, due to the overall growing EV demand. See the article below from Alix Partners, a research firm, outlining the current situation. One key point they mention is this comparison. “At $3,662 per vehicle (in the US), ICE raw-material content is nearly double pre-pandemic levels. This pales in comparison to BEV raw-material content, which is now $8,255 per vehicle. The disparity is driven largely by cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices.” https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7764712561928756266&li_theme=dark While new advances in battery technology like “solid-state” batteries promise better range and greater materials supply, these batteries currently cost four times more than standard lithium-ion batteries, exaggerating the current problem. Toyota is well placed to lead in this area, but it will be awhile before we see the majority of vehicles with solid-state batteries. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=9124043172319042537&li_theme=dark Add in rising global inflation, which means you can buy less for the same money, and a war in Ukraine which keeps energy markets volatile, and no wonder consumers are hesitating. While they are paying $5 for gasoline, and sure don’t like it, coming up with the cash for a new EV is getting harder and harder. For example, the average new car payment is now over $700 per month. Since the cost of borrowing is rising as the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, car buyers can either buy less car, or they have to put up more of their income for a car. Since all other prices are also rising, like mortgage payments, groceries, and school supplies, they feel the squeeze. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7812184282103910342&li_theme=dark And the average car loan length is now six years, which means that consumers that buy ICE vehicles today will be “upside down” a few more years longer, meaning they will owe more for the car than the car is worth. A negative equity situation. We have seen this phenomenon in the car market more than once, and it never works out for the either the consumer or the automaker. It delays purchases and keeps people trapped in their old technology. The average car on the road in the US is currently 12.2 years, which is much longer than historically we have seen. The current financing market dynamics are suggesting this may get even longer. The promise of a new EV will be in the distant future for too many. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8622472421372719983&li_theme=dark So if OEM’s want people to move to EV’s they need to bring affordable EV’s to market. They need to work with the government and their ecosystem to ensure that there is wide penetration of EV infrastructure. And of course the government needs to increase EV incentives and encourage more switching from ICE to EV, and not with just tax cuts. What about helping people pay for installing home chargers? While there is good commitment for this from the current administration, these programs are not yet simple, practical, and easy to access. Why not a “voucher” system for anyone buying an EV from a dealer, or even online, to receive a rebate on the cost of a home charger. Tax credits are hard to access and too far removed from the original cost outlay. Consumers need relief on this cost more quickly. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=6987414249488379809&li_theme=dark Overall consumer will move to electric vehicles, the trend is now inevitable, as product development cycles for automakers are many years long. The ocean liner turns slowly. So we will see lots of EV choices for new car buyers in a few years. And high volume categories like Pick-up trucks will even be very EV
The Auto Digital Experience Fight Club
George Ayres Automotive | Leader | Sales | Marketing | Mobility | Connected | Electric | Autonomous | Shared | Revenue | Growth 18 articles Ok, what happens when you put all the competitors in a room and tell them to start swinging while simultaneously placing bets to pick the winners (and of course the losers) too? You guessed it, a fight club where it’s everyone for themselves. Makes a good movie perhaps, but does it make for a good way to digitally transform the automotive user experience? Are owners, drivers, riders, and fleets better off with tools that only work in one setting, or vehicle, and not in another? Do you need to put on a new pair of digital driving shoes each time you jump in a different car? Well, currently we are witnessing a sort of fight club mindset within car software experience development. It may get a little bloody, so hang on. First, some boundary, or “ringside ropes” terminology to clarify this discussion. In the battle for the Digital Experience within Automobiles there are many terms, but all eventually come down to the same thing: How the car works when you’re either inside it, or controlling it remotely when outside of it. We can include ideas like “Software-Defined Vehicle” and the in-vehicle “Operating System,” in this mix. And proprietary names like Apple CarPlay or Google’s Android Auto are part of it too. And Amazon Alexa, as a way to control the experience with your voice, is included. And now we can add new names like “Ultifi,” General Motor’s new “end-to-end software platform” that is “designed to unlock new vehicle experiences and connect customers’ digital lives” as their announcement recently said. All of these things are coming together very rapidly, and the gloves have now been taken off all the participants. They used to play nice together, but now it’s getting serious. For decades of course, only the carmakers controlled how the car worked; how you turned the radio on, adjusted the climate control, or how the car collected data. Then they started working with other companies like Verizon and WirelessCar to enable “telematics,” a way to transmit vehicle information to an off-board platform and for the vehicle to receive instructions “over-the-air” or OTA. Then smartphones came along and customers started to complain that if they actually complied with the local highway safety rules, and did not use or talk on their handheld phone while driving, then the car effectively became a black hole for them. They were “off the grid” in terms of data and communication when they were driving. Since nearly everyone now relies on text, email, internet, and voice, to do basically anything, the automakers then needed a way to integrate these phones into the car so they could be used on the move without distraction. So Apple was given access to the vehicle and introduced Carplay, and Google was given access and introduced Android Auto. This was a love/hate relationship for most Auto OEM’s because when they give access, they lose control of the experience. Sometimes they forget of course that customers really LIKE their Apple i-phone experience, and enjoying this in their car as well is a good thing for owner loyalty. Once the door was open and the tech companies had access, they started pushing on it harder. Many Auto OEM’s have now signed up to let them too, and we’ll see if they are taking a punch in the process. At right is a recent listing from Google about the OEM’s that use the Android Automotive O/S. And just this week Apple made a big announcement about the new CarPlay and its ability to “more deeply integrate with a car’s hardware.” Ouch! Here is a view of what they mean. Without leaving the Apple interface you will be able to adjust climate controls, for example, so that you’re not jumping between CarPlay and the vehicle controls, keeping you inside the Apple O/S while you drive. It’s kind of like pushing you up against the ropes and holding you there awhile. From a carmaker point of view, ceding control of the customer experience for actually operating the car must be gut-wrenching. But they have already done it for music and “infotainment” so why not for other functions? But where does Apple stop and the Automaker’s own systems begin? How will GM’s Ultifi, for example, work with Android Auto and Apple CarPlay? What is Ultifi giving up? Who is going to win the fight for control of the experience? It’s a melee today. Below as great chart from my friends at MotorMindz that shows a few good examples of how some Auto OEM’s are betting on winning this fight themselves. Of course for over 100 years automakers have controlled how their cars got built, but once sold, they were done. The only things they needed to worry about was paying for repairs under the warranty. Now they want to control, or at least participate in, how their cars get “operated and updated” by the first, second, and even third owners. Over the “lifetime” of your vehicle, they want to continuously upgade how your car works, help you enjoy improvements in operations and performance (and charge you for this) and generally make a car like a smartphone, with easy to install OTA updates. But what happens when Apple decides they don’t want to make that change to how the climate control gets adjusted, either because they are not ready or because they are not getting paid to do it? Does the Automaker have any recourse to force them? Giving up control has a downside if you are an OEM. Of course, the driver or passenger wants the best experience, so delays in making updates, or incompatibility stemming from a fight for control of the experience, may end up disappointing users, who will remember who’s car worked seamlessly, and who’s didn’t. One of the reasons Apple has been successful across phones, computers, tablets, and even tv’s is
In the News
In The News Meeting the new National Target for Electric Vehicle sales in the US Market. Last week President Biden announced that the new environmental goal for the US should be 50% electric vehicles for sale by 2030. This was announced as a non-mandatory national target, and the signing ceremony was attended by leaders from GM, Ford, and Stellantis. Tesla was notably absent. Many since have wondered how can this be a realistic target, given that we are only at about 3% EV sales worldwide? And currently, the average age of a vehicle on US roads is over 12 years. So how do we replace so many cars with new EV’s so quickly? Here I offer three ways to make this acceleration happen. First, by pushing through an even bigger infrastructure plan around charging stations and enabling technologies for EV’s on American roads, the Biden administration can help lower the barrier many potential new EV adopters see with this new way of powering their automobile. If they do not feel they will be stranded without power, they will feel much more secure about living with an EV. Most consumers understand they can charge at home, and perhaps work, and that their range under normal circumstances is plenty. But they worry about when they have to go out of their way, and cannot find a ubiquitous charge point, unlike today where they are pretty confident they can re-fuel their internal combustion vehicle almost everywhere. And while Biden has a goal of 500,000 electric chargers across America, there is not nearly enough federal funding for this in the bill. “There’s $7.5 billion for electric buses—I wanted $15” billion, Biden said at the press conference. Second, the Federal Tax Credit for EV purchases is currently up to $7500 on a growing list of eligible vehicles, (see current list here (https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml) including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV’s) and Plug-in-Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV’s). But consumers are changing the way they buy cars, and ownership models are changing as well. The Administration should recognize this, and help enable more accessible EV’s for many potential buyers. Fleet’s are an obvious way to increase the penetration of EV’s within the current units-in-operation (UIO) of the US market, and fleet tax incentives could be improved to encourage more EV adoption by fleet buyers. It was not that many years ago that the government encouraged companies to buy large SUVsSUV’s at the end of the calendar year, as they could write-off much of the cost to their businesses. Let’s help companies and fleets more rapidly adopt EV’s as their preferred vehicle of choice, by making going green more cost-effective upfront. Late-model EV’s that are then turned over by fleets will be available as used EV’s for the market, widening retail customer adoption. Finally, automakers and marketers need to do a better job of showcasing the dramatic performance capabilities of EV’s. Most consumers still believe EV’s are low-power, poor for hauling, and have very little “fun” factor to them. The current crop of electric vehicles on the market shows that this is not the case at all. More vehicles have been introduced with more power, and large vehicles like the Ford F-150 Lighting, and the GM Hummer are going electric, showing that space and hauling ability does not have to be compromised then buying electric. Remember, it took decades for consumers to get over the 1980’s diesel-powered cars that were noisy and smelly, and then realize that modern diesel’s are fantastic performance transportation. While everyone gets that EV’s are zero emissions and quiet, until they drive one, most people don’t understand the near-instantaneous power delivery many EV’s have as well. A national target of 50% of sales by 2030 is high, but business and consumers are ready if there is a strong push by the government to move to more EV adoption. If the US market growth in EV’s simply matched China’s current rate, we could easily get there. Make it easy to charge them anywhere, cost-effective to purchase and own, and then let the marketing types showcase the value and performance benefits, and EV’s will begin to fill the roads. The time is finally here. News Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/biden-pushes-for-evs-to-make-up-40percent-or-more-of-us-auto-sales-by-2030.html You can subscribe to the AutoMobility Roadmap for free and continue to follow the dynamic and changing automotive mobility world. If you’d like to engage directly with the team at AutoMobility Advisors, contact us or contact us via Linked In. View and Subscribe to the Automobility Roadmap on LinkedIn here. Get to Know Us About Our Team Consulting Services Events AMA News Get the AutoMobility Roadmap Newsletter White Papers & Reports AMA Thought Leadership Let’s Connect Contact Us Follow us on LinkedIn Follow us on YouTube Copyright @2024 AutoMobilityAdvisors, All Rights Reserved. Edit Template