The Green Acceleration
AutoMobility Roadmap Newsletter The Green Acceleration October 23, 2023 Rapid technological advancement is often a symptom of great human need. On a fateful December day in 1903, the Wright Brothers accomplished the first controlled flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft. After almost 5000 years of human civilization, this was the first time that humans were able to achieve this momentous feat. Yet, 66 years later, within one single lifetime, man landed on the moon. These 66 years saw two globe spanning conflicts and one of the most rapid eras of technological development in human history. Simply put, the need to defeat advanced and threatening enemies drove near-unthinkable levels of innovation. In the 21st century, a new enemy has arisen, one perhaps as existentially threatening or more than the United States’ previous adversaries abroad. This new enemy is not an ideology or a country, but the dangers to our planet that have resulted from decades of burning excessive fossil fuels. Climate change is the next great hurdle humans have to overcome. The United Nations among a variety of other global organizations has reported that the Earth’s temperature has increased by an average of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880 and could potentially warm by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. Assuming that nothing is done to curb this change, these higher temperatures will result in water shortages, unlivable summer conditions, higher ocean temperatures, and greater prevalence of extreme, life threatening weather events. Though grim, this challenge is not insurmountable, and the automotive industry has an increasingly viable solution. The investment into and mass adoption of electric vehicles will have an enormous impact on slowing the climate change crisis, especially as growing need drives further innovation. According to the EPA, the transportation industry accounts for 29% of all US Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This sector of the economy is by far the largest contributor to GHG emissions, and the EPA has thus far spent decades working to curb these numbers. Globally, passenger cars produce nearly 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. Moreover, cars and vans alone produce just under 50% of all global carbon emissions. It is clear that the automotive industry makes up a disproportionate percentage of the world’s emissions output, so the adoption of EVs will make a significant impact on the efficacy of the global climate response. Regulators, automakers, and consumers alike have recognized that EVs are an important step towards reducing these numbers, and great strides are being made towards conquering the challenge presented by the climate crisis. Since 2016, most major automakers and new automotive startups have funneled enormous amounts of capital and talent into EVs. In the last two years alone, investment has skyrocketed from $50 billion to $210 billion, driven by stricter legislation and widespread consumer demand for environmentally conscious vehicles. Much of the investment goes towards developing brand new EV models. Companies such as Ford and GM now have flagship EV models that are able to compete directly with the likes of Tesla and Rivian. Moreover, consumers are noticing and rewarding automakers for their commitment to EVs. In Q3 this year, Tesla’s share of the EV market dropped below 50%, as more buyers look to traditional manufacturers offering competitive products. However, this was the strongest quarter for EV sales ever, with over 300,000 vehicles sold, surpassing both Q2 and passing Q3 2022 by almost 50%. Coming in at just under 8% of the total market sales in Q3, EVs have a long way to go until they dominate the market, but these bullish sales figures paint a rosy picture for environmentalists, regulators, and OEMs alike. The next step in reducing carbon emissions is the mass implementation of battery-electric medium and heavy duty vehicles. A frequent point of discussion on the AutoMobility Roadmap, electric commercial vehicles have the potential to completely overhaul the way in which businesses produce carbon emissions. Cutting out nearly 25% of all transportation CO2 emissions (456.6 million tons of carbon dioxide) sounds like an impossibility, but with such strong financial incentives from the US government, it is closer to reality than previously thought. A plethora of commercial vehicle companies are investing time and money into developing practical EVs that fill the needs for markets such as tractor trailers and delivery trucks. Attacking toxic emissions outputs from this direction is sure to be a necessary step in the battle against climate change. In the grand scheme of things, the battle against climate change has only just begun. EVs still make up a small minority of the market, and the challenges around their production have not yet been solved. 110 years ago, the aviation industry was in the same situation. Difficult production of expensive novel technologies held aircraft back. But with time and urgent need, this lull was rapidly reversed, leading humanity to walk on the moon not six decades later. EVs have reached that critical stage, and as summers become hotter and severe weather more deadly, it is almost inevitable that EVs will capture a large enough portion of the market to make a stand against climate change. Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! Home Let us help you succeed in AutoMobility! 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AMA to attend AutoTech Electrification in Detroit
IN THE NEWS We’re pleased to announce that Automobility Advisors will be participating in the upcoming AutoTech Electrification event in Detroit, taking place on October 17th and 18th. This event is a pivotal gathering for industry experts, innovators, and enthusiasts to come together and discuss the transformative shift towards automotive electrification. The ongoing transformation of the automotive industry is evident, with the shift toward vehicle electrification taking center stage. This transition is not just about cleaner and more sustainable transportation; it’s about reducing carbon emissions, enhancing energy efficiency, and driving technological advancements. Electrification presents opportunities for job creation and long-term cost savings for consumers, and it’s clear that automakers, tech companies, and industry experts are fully embracing this electric revolution. The AutoTech Electrification event in Detroit is a cornerstone for staying updated on industry developments, and Automobility Advisors is thrilled to be part of it. We look forward to the networking opportunities the event will provide, enabling us to expand our industry connections and foster collaborations that will shape the future of clean and sustainable transportation. If you’re passionate about the future of the automotive industry and its electrification journey, we invite you to join us at the AutoTech Electrification event in Detroit. Let us help you succeed in AutoMobility! Edit Template Edit Template Contact Us Today Name Email Message Send Edit Template Get to Know Us About Our Team Consulting Services Events AMA News Get the AutoMobility Roadmap Newsletter White Papers & Reports AMA Thought Leadership Let’s Connect Contact Us Follow us on LinkedIn Follow us on YouTube Copyright @2024 AutoMobilityAdvisors, All Rights Reserved. Edit Template
Turning EV Dreams Into Reality: Fleet Edition
EVs are solidifying their place as the future of automotive technology. With billions of dollars of investment pouring in from national governments and the private sector, it is abundantly clear that electric technology is here to stay.
Panel at MOVE America: Connectivity and Integration: How we move and how we groove
The discussion covered topics such as inductive charging roadways, autonomous lane engines, and the role of technology in reducing road accidents.
The Weakest Link
This is part two of a three part series on the development of EVs and their supporting infrastructure in the United States. It is said that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. In terms of the transition away from internal combustion engines towards electric vehicles, charging stations are the said “weakest link.” As essential as gas stations used by their ICE counterparts, EV charging stations are a fast developing but greatly lagging piece of the EV adoption puzzle in the United States. According to the White House in February, there are currently about 130,000 charging stations across the country which service three million or so EVs. Five years ago, the number was a little over half of that. While growing steadily for the last 10 years, the need for car charging stations is on the cusp of an explosion. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) actively encourages and incentivizes the mass adoption of both light EVs and medium/heavy duty commercial EVs, which will require significantly more powerful and larger charging stations. If the US is to expect tens of millions of new light EVs, medium duty EVs, and heavy duty EVs to hit the road by 2030, substantial steps need to be taken to make sure that there are enough charging stations to meet the massive demand. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7033500277189233670&li_theme=light The first step will be to provide funding for companies to build the required number of charging stations to meet this demand. S&P Global, a NYC based financial analytics company, estimates that by 2027, the United States will need 1.2 million level 2 chargers and 109,000 level 3 chargers to meet the EV electricity demands. This is a stark increase from current capabilities, and at an estimated need of a 10 to 1 ratio of EVs to charging stations, it will take quite some time to reach these goals. Fortunately however, the Biden administration just this past week announced that over $2.5 billion in funding will be made available to local, city, and county governments for the express purpose of building more EV charging stations and expanding the availability of chargers to underserved areas. U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in the White House press release that “extending EV charging infrastructure into traditionally underserved areas will ensure that equitable and widespread EV adoption takes hold,” and will ensure “that charging stations more visible and accessible in our communities addresses the concerns many American drivers have when considering making the switch to electric.” So already, steps are being taken in the right direction to meet infrastructure demands. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8836377427900808895&li_theme=light The second step for EV charging will be to fix the chronic reliability issues that plague the current charging network. According to a J.D. Power study and recently reported by Automotive News, between Q1 2021 and Q3 2022, failed charging attempts rose from 15% to 21%, and in the last year, nearly 2 in 5 charging attempts were unsuccessful. If the average American is expecting to be able to rely upon an EV to get them from point A to point B, a near 40% failure rate to “refuel” their car will not be sustainable. Reasons for these failures can include out of service chargers, vandalism, software problems, and payment processing issues. These errors are partially caused by the volume of traffic received by each station, with some stations having nearly no downtime at all because of availability issues. This creates a vicious cycle in which there are not enough charging stations, so the ones that do exist are strained to the point where they break, therefore causing less charging stations to be available overall, and so on. To fix the overall problem, some of the resources dedicated to building the new charging stations need to be used to shore up the already existing charging infrastructure dotting the US. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=9178542192637438259&li_theme=light The EV charging station situation is not optimal or perfect by any means, but when a revolutionary new technology enters the market, there are always bound to be some bumps along the road towards implementation. Continued investment from private companies and at all levels of government will be required to fix the problems outlined above, but fortunately great funding and emphasis is already being put into this widely acknowledged problem. The goal of the US government is to create a seamless transition to EVs in which charging a car has the same level of convenience as filling a car up at a gas station, and by dedicating a combined total of $7.5 billion to doing so, it shows that the necessary funding and support exist to make it a reality. Stay tuned in two weeks for Part 3 of AMA’s story on the development of EV infrastructure in the United States. Learn more about how the AutoMobility Advisors team can help you and your business seize the amazing opportunities to serve the new mobility market. Click on the link below and get in touch, we’d love to talk with you! #evcharginginfrastructure #evcharging #ev #electricvehicles #futuremobility #newmobility #connectedvehicles #digitaltransformation #AutoMobility Advisors
Carpe EV Diem
Automobility Roadmap Newsletter – A perspective on all the changes in automotive transportation and the technology that’s now driving you. This week’s topic Carpe EV Diem and the EV adoption future.
The High Cost of EV Adoption Today
George Ayres Automotive | Leader | Sales | Marketing | Mobility | Connected | Electric | Autonomous | Shared | Revenue | Growth 18 articles The transformation of the auto industry from internal combustion engines to battery power is accelerating, no doubt about it. And the infrastructure, charging networks, and government support for this change are increasing. Consumer themselves are listening, learning, and becoming more interested in moving towards EV’s too. The article below describes a recent Consumer Reports survey that said 14% of people would definitely purchase an EV, but twice this number (28%) definitely “would not” consider an EV. What about the 58% in the middle? What will it take to move them? I think the main issue at the moment is not range, charging infrastructure, or fear of new tech. It’s simply cost. EV’s are expensive right now. Too expensive! And it seems things will be this way for at least 3 years. Let’s look at why. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8431522422095463804&li_theme=dark It’s clear that soon we will have many varieties of electric vehicles available, and some will be more affordable. All OEM’s are moving quickly. Just take a look at the center-spread of this week’s Automotive News (shown below) and you can see that every Automaker is moving faster to transform their product line-up to more EV’s. And States like California are moving to full EV only. But much of this terrific new product development is not helping buyers yet, as the models currently available for sale are all just too expensive. For example, the EV market leader, Tesla, has not expanded its model range for awhile, and even the Model 3 starts at $45k. Ford has the F-150 Lightning and Mach E, but they both cost $40k or more, and very hard to get. And yes, the Cadillac Lyriq sold out in a few hours, but it is in very limited production and costs over $60,000 which is much more expensive than the majority of the buyers in the new car market can afford. And because GM is no longer eligible, there is not even an EV tax credit for this vehicle. But GM did recently reduce the price of the Chevy Bolt. So GM is clearly thinking about EV affordability. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8673126474556867075&li_theme=dark But all of the new EV vehicles are not here yet. And people need to buy something, or upgrade their current vehicle, and can’t wait. Supply is constrained due to the ongoing semi-conductor chip shortage. And component material prices for batteries are increasing, especially for lithium and cobalt, due to the overall growing EV demand. See the article below from Alix Partners, a research firm, outlining the current situation. One key point they mention is this comparison. “At $3,662 per vehicle (in the US), ICE raw-material content is nearly double pre-pandemic levels. This pales in comparison to BEV raw-material content, which is now $8,255 per vehicle. The disparity is driven largely by cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices.” https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7764712561928756266&li_theme=dark While new advances in battery technology like “solid-state” batteries promise better range and greater materials supply, these batteries currently cost four times more than standard lithium-ion batteries, exaggerating the current problem. Toyota is well placed to lead in this area, but it will be awhile before we see the majority of vehicles with solid-state batteries. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=9124043172319042537&li_theme=dark Add in rising global inflation, which means you can buy less for the same money, and a war in Ukraine which keeps energy markets volatile, and no wonder consumers are hesitating. While they are paying $5 for gasoline, and sure don’t like it, coming up with the cash for a new EV is getting harder and harder. For example, the average new car payment is now over $700 per month. Since the cost of borrowing is rising as the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation, car buyers can either buy less car, or they have to put up more of their income for a car. Since all other prices are also rising, like mortgage payments, groceries, and school supplies, they feel the squeeze. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=7812184282103910342&li_theme=dark And the average car loan length is now six years, which means that consumers that buy ICE vehicles today will be “upside down” a few more years longer, meaning they will owe more for the car than the car is worth. A negative equity situation. We have seen this phenomenon in the car market more than once, and it never works out for the either the consumer or the automaker. It delays purchases and keeps people trapped in their old technology. The average car on the road in the US is currently 12.2 years, which is much longer than historically we have seen. The current financing market dynamics are suggesting this may get even longer. The promise of a new EV will be in the distant future for too many. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=8622472421372719983&li_theme=dark So if OEM’s want people to move to EV’s they need to bring affordable EV’s to market. They need to work with the government and their ecosystem to ensure that there is wide penetration of EV infrastructure. And of course the government needs to increase EV incentives and encourage more switching from ICE to EV, and not with just tax cuts. What about helping people pay for installing home chargers? While there is good commitment for this from the current administration, these programs are not yet simple, practical, and easy to access. Why not a “voucher” system for anyone buying an EV from a dealer, or even online, to receive a rebate on the cost of a home charger. Tax credits are hard to access and too far removed from the original cost outlay. Consumers need relief on this cost more quickly. https://www.linkedin.com/embeds/publishingEmbed.html?articleId=6987414249488379809&li_theme=dark Overall consumer will move to electric vehicles, the trend is now inevitable, as product development cycles for automakers are many years long. The ocean liner turns slowly. So we will see lots of EV choices for new car buyers in a few years. And high volume categories like Pick-up trucks will even be very EV
Expanding EV Charging – Some Practical Issues
“We want to give customers the right tools and access to charging where and when they need it, while working with our dealer network to accelerate the expansion of accessible charging throughout the U.S. and Canada, including in underserved, rural and urban areas,” said GM President Mark Reuss in a statement.
In The News
Will the Chevy Bolt recall change EV adoption? Last week GM’s CFO reassured Wall Street that the company will recover the over $1 billion cost of the Chevy Bolt EV recall, with the battery maker, LG Chem, paying GM back for the expense. While as an automaker, recovering direct costs from suppliers for warranty expenses is a routine matter, this is a high profile, high visibility situation for GM. The company has made tremendous progress moving toward an all-EV product line-up, branded their battery system the “Ultium” (which is pretty cool branding actually), and even changed the corporate logo to be more hi-tech looking. Will this recall cause any slow-down in EV adoption for GM? I say short-term yes, long-term no, for three reasons. First, the transition to electric vehicles is happening globally much more rapidly than most previously expected, and this will not slow down for some recall events here and there. EVvolumes.com has reported that in the first half of 2021, global EV sales were up 168% over last year. Of course, the global pandemic had a dampening effect in the first half of 2020, but this is still much more growth than the mainstream auto market. It seems like we are finally “crossing the chasm” as technology adopter guru Geoffrey Moore famously put it in his seminal book of the same name. There is no looking back now. Second, automakers have had many brushes with bad PR due to perceived safety issues and always gotten beyond them. Ralph Nader made his name by attacking a GM vehicle, the Corvair, in the 1960’s, and GM overcame this issue. Audi in the 1980’s suffered sales declines due to perceptions of “sudden acceleration” in some of its models, and now Audi is a very strong brand in the US market. Toyota even had some of the same issues with perceptions of sudden acceleration a few years ago, and this does not seem to be an issue for consumers who are still buying Toyota’s. Overall, these kinds of issues do affect the short-term sales of a model, and the brand as a whole, but longer-term they are soon forgotten. The global chip shortage will probably have more effect on GM’s EV sales near term. Finally, consumers are changing and their expectations will need to be met by progressive companies, and offering EV’s will be a requirement. Tesla has had some bad press a few times along the way but overall they have built a very positive and favorable image for themselves among consumers. Customers like Tesla’s large touch screens, over-the-air-software updates, and “autopilot” automated driving technology. They are looking for similar features from all other EV choices, and the winners will be those that provide the best value which can be thought of as the Total Experience divided by the Total Cost. Savvy consumers will continue to drive the automakers to supply EV’s loaded with hi-tech features and that need little maintenance. In the end, yes, this is a stumble GM could have lived without, and it is great that they will recoup some costs from their supplier. But consumers now have a taste for the future of “mobility” and EV’s are a critical part of this. More EV’s for sale by more OEM’s will be required, and GM will continue to drive much of the progress. Let’s help them change the planet! News Source: https://www.thestar.com/business/thestreet/2021/09/10/general-motors-stock-jumps-as-cfo-sees-battery-recall-cost-recovery-stable-chip-supplies.html?es_id=7968cdc9b4 You can subscribe to the AutoMobility Roadmap for free and continue to follow the dynamic and changing automotive mobility world. If you’d like to engage directly with the team at AutoMobility Advisors, contact us or contact us via Linked In. View and Subscribe to the Automobility Roadmap on LinkedIn here.